You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–8 on winners spread MAE 13.5 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mississippi State @ Georgia Tech -8.1 137.9 25% 59–67 ✗
Cincinnati @ Howard -4.8 149.7 26% 86–81 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Indiana State +3.8 151.2 69% 48–77 ✓
South Carolina State @ Furman +14.3 161.3 88% 78–86 ✓
Charleston Southern @ The Citadel +12.4 132.9 84% 52–81 ✓
William & Mary @ Norfolk State +1.3 148.1 55% 62–96 ✓
Western Carolina @ Tennessee Tech -8.8 141.2 21% 69–65 ✓
Wagner @ Providence +12.7 128.3 84% 52–86 ✓
Rider @ Maryland +8.5 127.2 80% 76–103 ✓
Notre Dame @ South Carolina +13.6 135.5 85% 53–65 ✓
LSU @ Syracuse +1.8 148.1 61% 57–80 ✓
Miami @ Kentucky +7.9 163.7 82% 73–95 ✓
Ball State @ Little Rock +3.3 150.0 67% 64–90 ✓
Northwestern State @ UL Monroe +7.3 141.3 69% 70–74 ✓
Missouri @ Pittsburgh +18.5 142.7 87% 71–64 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Kansas +27.5 142.5 91% 63–71 ✓
Nicholls @ Baylor +15.6 158.9 86% 70–108 ✓
Chicago State @ Loyola Chicago +12.8 142.5 85% 53–62 ✓
Utah State @ Saint Louis -7.2 145.7 27% 81–76 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Kansas State +12.5 150.2 84% 78–88 ✓
McNeese @ UAB -1.4 139.7 44% 81–60 ✓
Texas Southern @ Purdue +28.0 136.8 91% 67–99 ✓
Jackson State @ Arkansas State +6.2 152.6 75% 75–71 ✗
Southern @ Marquette +26.7 153.0 91% 56–93 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Gonzaga +20.6 135.2 90% 65–81 ✓
NC State @ Ole Miss -0.3 143.5 50% 52–72 ✗
Clemson @ Alabama +14.5 158.1 81% 85–77 ✗
Akron @ UNLV +2.6 141.0 60% 70–72 ✓
Portland @ Portland State +13.3 145.5 86% 74–75 ✓
UC San Diego @ Washington +5.7 151.5 70% 56–83 ✓
Idaho State @ Pepperdine +2.7 138.7 63% 62–77 ✓
Chattanooga @ Lipscomb +5.8 148.2 74% 68–82 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Army +2.8 127.8 53% 79–51 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Stonehill -13.9 146.6 15% 80–74 ✓
Campbell @ Jacksonville +7.1 134.7 72% 48–62 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Villanova +12.0 141.2 78% 78–65 ✗
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State -0.0 140.9 49% 69–94 ✗
Northeastern @ Seton Hall +13.5 144.4 86% 75–88 ✓
East Tennessee State @ App State +13.4 142.2 85% 61–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.