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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
42–21 on winners
spread MAE 9.8
63 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+1.6 | 151.5 | 58% | 84–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.9 | 150.3 | 56% | 76–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.0 | 155.4 | 70% | 87–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 142.4 | 86% | 72–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 141.8 | 49% | 71–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 140.3 | 82% | 69–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 149.0 | 62% | 83–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.4 | 139.6 | 75% | 104–107 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 146.3 | 78% | 71–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 138.9 | 71% | 58–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 130.5 | 72% | 67–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 136.8 | 72% | 69–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.8 | 140.9 | 50% | 72–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.8 | 134.5 | 49% | 71–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.8 | 137.7 | 63% | 72–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.3 | 150.6 | 81% | 69–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 133.5 | 69% | 59–50 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 143.7 | 55% | 66–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 134.2 | 52% | 67–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 137.5 | 56% | 61–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.0 | 146.0 | 82% | 78–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.4 | 143.8 | 46% | 92–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 137.0 | 46% | 66–52 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 126.6 | 22% | 79–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 155.4 | 60% | 69–106 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 130.8 | 47% | 78–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.5 | 135.9 | 24% | 72–57 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.0 | 141.2 | 28% | 84–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 146.7 | 78% | 76–95 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 135.6 | 46% | 96–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 143.0 | 38% | 80–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 139.2 | 79% | 65–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 132.3 | 53% | 59–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.2 | 142.8 | 90% | 57–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 149.1 | 40% | 86–103 | ✗ |
|
|
+22.6 | 130.2 | 90% | 77–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 151.9 | 42% | 97–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 123.0 | 81% | 65–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.0 | 128.7 | 32% | 66–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+19.0 | 130.7 | 90% | 46–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.1 | 142.8 | 18% | 77–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 146.2 | 46% | 71–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.1 | 144.6 | 73% | 62–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 140.5 | 71% | 58–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 134.8 | 85% | 63–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 150.5 | 72% | 64–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 150.7 | 79% | 75–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 141.3 | 78% | 55–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.7 | 141.7 | 90% | 70–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 152.4 | 83% | 75–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 138.4 | 83% | 57–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 152.6 | 84% | 80–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.7 | 129.1 | 52% | 65–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.2 | 135.4 | 36% | 71–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.3 | 138.8 | 24% | 62–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 141.4 | 77% | 65–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.4 | 131.8 | 30% | 74–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.3 | 120.3 | 20% | 60–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 129.1 | 86% | 51–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 139.6 | 60% | 84–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.6 | 140.5 | 89% | 70–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 132.4 | 61% | 67–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.1 | 132.3 | 52% | 80–51 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.