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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–18 on winners spread MAE 7.9 65 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan	+3.2	142.4	62%	55–65	✓
South Florida @ UCF	+10.9	129.1	85%	49–68	✓
Southern Miss @ Florida International	+8.7	134.7	81%	67–77	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida Atlantic	-0.1	142.1	51%	73–83	✗
Western Kentucky @ Charlotte	-0.3	141.5	44%	78–59	✓
Bryant @ Saint Francis	-4.2	153.9	27%	89–82	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ St. Francis Brooklyn	+4.1	142.9	62%	64–81	✓
Merrimack @ Mount St. Mary's	+7.2	123.8	69%	53–69	✓
Sacred Heart @ Long Island University	+6.6	150.1	78%	75–79	✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut	-14.4	136.5	13%	54–52	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Winthrop	+10.7	148.3	84%	54–64	✓
Youngstown State @ IU Indianapolis	-14.0	122.3	12%	61–55	✓
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern	-3.2	136.2	39%	57–58	✗
Troy @ Georgia State	+1.9	137.4	59%	67–63	✗
Towson @ Hofstra	+1.9	138.9	63%	78–68	✗
UNC Wilmington @ Elon	-0.1	136.5	42%	65–78	✗
James Madison @ Northeastern	-0.3	142.2	44%	76–71	✓
Charleston @ William & Mary	-7.7	153.4	21%	84–61	✓
Utah Tech @ Sam Houston	+8.8	139.8	80%	53–77	✓
Utah Valley @ Stephen F. Austin	+0.0	137.7	59%	59–78	✓
UCLA @ Arizona	+7.1	149.7	74%	66–76	✓
UTSA @ Rice	+10.0	148.7	83%	78–91	✓
Marshall @ Old Dominion	+5.2	142.8	68%	64–79	✓
Portland State @ Northern Colorado	+6.6	154.2	69%	106–99	✗
Northwestern State @ Houston Christian	+0.3	147.2	48%	97–87	✗
Robert Morris @ UIC	+4.8	145.3	70%	75–80	✓
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State	+8.3	142.4	82%	60–59	✗
St. Thomas @ Kansas City	+3.1	139.1	72%	72–81	✓
Western Illinois @ Oral Roberts	+9.2	162.0	81%	90–85	✗
Omaha @ North Dakota State	+14.1	149.5	88%	64–71	✓
Denver @ North Dakota	-2.6	142.6	43%	81–79	✓
Stetson @ Lipscomb	+3.0	146.8	59%	77–71	✗
LSU New Orleans @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+3.5	150.0	58%	79–70	✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese	+0.8	152.5	54%	83–78	✗
North Florida @ Jacksonville State	+12.4	144.5	85%	88–76	✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Central Arkansas	-6.3	158.2	26%	95–93	✓
Gonzaga @ San Diego	-16.2	149.6	12%	92–62	✓
San José State @ Utah State	+20.2	141.5	91%	62–78	✓
Boise State @ Wyoming	+0.9	132.1	62%	65–72	✓
Oregon State @ Utah	+6.8	142.8	76%	59–84	✓
Washington State @ Stanford	-1.1	132.0	47%	66–60	✓
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word	-10.3	145.3	18%	63–60	✓
Belmont @ Tennessee State	-14.5	148.4	13%	88–61	✓
Montana @ Weber State	+7.3	143.0	77%	75–80	✓
Idaho @ Southern Utah	+12.4	155.8	88%	59–75	✓
Seattle U @ Grand Canyon	+5.9	140.5	73%	66–78	✓
California Baptist @ New Mexico State	+11.1	140.9	86%	57–68	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Santa Clara	+8.7	148.7	82%	60–79	✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama	-0.6	125.2	40%	56–50	✓
Pepperdine @ Pacific	+2.5	138.3	72%	76–81	✓
Oregon @ Colorado	+0.4	139.3	53%	66–51	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State	+3.8	134.5	69%	65–74	✓
UC Irvine @ UC Santa Barbara	+1.6	127.7	50%	53–52	✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton	+10.9	131.1	87%	50–61	✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge	-3.8	134.5	34%	83–77	✓
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State	+2.1	133.0	60%	62–61	✗
San Francisco @ BYU	+4.0	142.9	76%	73–59	✗
USC @ Arizona State	-6.5	135.1	26%	58–53	✓
Washington @ California	+3.7	137.2	59%	84–63	✗
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside	+2.1	128.7	63%	59–64	✓
Saint Mary's @ Portland	-12.5	135.5	16%	75–54	✓
Dartmouth @ Yale	+5.1	139.2	76%	69–72	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Richmond	+4.9	138.4	72%	61–71	✓
Western Carolina @ VMI	+9.7	156.9	84%	69–76	✓
Miami (OH) @ Akron	+7.3	139.9	80%	55–66	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.