Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
| Money | UCR -150 HAW +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +5 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -2.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -2.1 (+2.9) | 128.7 (-5.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -1.3 (+3.7) | 129.1 (-6.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -1.9 (+3.1) | 130.9 (-7.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -1.8 (+3.2) | 129.0 (-6.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HAW 93 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 2, 2026 | HAW 88 – 45 UCR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCR 82 – 76 HAW |
| Jan 10, 2025 | HAW 83 – 76 UCR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | HAW 76 – 73 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 10-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 64.5 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#154) | 0.9 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#150) | 0.07 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#165) | 0.15 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#150) | 0.479 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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