Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | PAC -180 PEPP +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -3.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -2.5 (+2.5) | 138.3 (+18.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -2.0 (+3.0) | 138.1 (+18.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -2.2 (+2.8) | 137.5 (+19.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -2.3 (+2.7) | 138.4 (+18.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | PAC 92 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 5, 2026 | PAC 74 – 69 PEPP |
| Jan 26, 2025 | PEPP 60 – 44 PAC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PEPP 87 – 70 PAC |
| Mar 7, 2024 | PEPP 102 – 43 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 1-15 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-9 |
| Away | 0-13 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#284) | -7.3 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#300) | -1.40 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#295) | -1.61 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#326) | 0.429 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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