Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | ARST -360 ULM +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +1 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -10.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -8.3 (-9.3) | 142.4 (-23.4) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -8.1 (-9.1) | 142.6 (-23.6) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -8.7 (-9.7) | 142.4 (-23.4) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -9.2 (-10.2) | 141.9 (-22.9) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#178) | -7.3 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#103) | -0.72 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#114) | -0.77 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#108) | 0.472 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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