Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -400 NCAT +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +10 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -8.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-34.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -10.7 (-0.7) | 148.3 (-30.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -7.5 (+2.5) | 150.3 (-32.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -7.6 (+2.4) | 150.6 (-32.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -7.3 (+2.7) | 150.4 (-32.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Game Analysis
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