Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | GASO +125 USA -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +1 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | USA -3.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -3.2 (+4.2) | 136.2 (-21.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -2.2 (+3.2) | 136.1 (-21.1) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -2.7 (+3.7) | 137.2 (-22.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -2.7 (+3.7) | 135.9 (-20.9) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GASO 94 – 85 USA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USA 87 – 71 GASO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | USA 76 – 47 GASO |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GASO 76 – 71 USA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | USA 78 – 65 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#221) | 3.5 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#188) | 0.87 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#205) | 1.06 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#191) | 0.557 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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