Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -20.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | USU -4500 SJSU +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +16 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | USU -21.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -20.2 (-4.2) | 141.5 (-1.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -16.7 (-0.7) | 140.6 (-0.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -18.3 (-2.3) | 140.4 (-0.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -18.1 (-2.1) | 140.7 (-0.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USU 96 – 78 SJSU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USU 105 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | USU 85 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | USU 90 – 70 SJSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | USU 82 – 61 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 1-17 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#41) | -7.9 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#71) | -0.63 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#55) | -0.93 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#54) | 0.457 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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