Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ASU +205 USC -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +5 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -7.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -6.5 (+1.5) | 135.1 (-24.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -6.8 (+1.8) | 135.6 (-24.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -6.7 (+1.7) | 135.4 (-24.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -5.4 (+0.4) | 136.1 (-25.1) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | USC 88 – 75 ASU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | USC 81 – 73 ASU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ASU 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ASU 77 – 72 USC |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USC 68 – 65 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#137) | 12.0 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#158) | 2.46 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#179) | 2.86 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#138) | 0.591 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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