Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | ELON +105 UNCW -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -0.7 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -0.1 (+13.1) | 136.5 (+6.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.0 (+14.0) | 138.5 (+4.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -1.2 (+14.2) | 139.3 (+3.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.1 (+15.1) | 138.8 (+4.2) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 57 ELON |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 54 ELON |
| Feb 16, 2025 | ELON 81 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ELON 73 – 72 UNCW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UNCW 82 – 70 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#275) | -2.2 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#280) | 0.78 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#274) | 0.39 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#260) | 0.537 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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