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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
38–12 on winners
spread MAE 7.9
50 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-8.5 | 145.4 | 21% | 88–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 143.8 | 88% | 70–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 129.4 | 86% | 66–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 135.2 | 69% | 62–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 137.1 | 62% | 57–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.7 | 147.1 | 89% | 69–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 138.4 | 42% | 71–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.9 | 131.7 | 24% | 62–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.8 | 139.5 | 36% | 85–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 129.9 | 44% | 65–57 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 126.3 | 46% | 58–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.6 | 140.1 | 66% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.4 | 141.0 | 85% | 75–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 138.8 | 64% | 69–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.0 | 138.6 | 90% | 67–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.0 | 131.0 | 17% | 62–50 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 133.9 | 41% | 59–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 133.7 | 65% | 64–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 141.9 | 73% | 77–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.3 | 142.6 | 30% | 85–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.0 | 138.5 | 50% | 87–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 135.0 | 45% | 92–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 129.4 | 43% | 55–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.0 | 147.7 | 37% | 84–87 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.7 | 141.6 | 64% | 76–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.1 | 156.8 | 89% | 83–102 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.7 | 153.3 | 16% | 99–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.7 | 140.8 | 14% | 59–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.0 | 138.2 | 89% | 62–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 145.9 | 73% | 79–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 137.9 | 63% | 65–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.0 | 149.1 | 89% | 64–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.2 | 140.7 | 25% | 72–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.9 | 140.1 | 75% | 67–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 155.0 | 51% | 89–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.4 | 135.5 | 84% | 66–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 131.5 | 53% | 68–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.9 | 121.9 | 37% | 69–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 123.0 | 62% | 82–52 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.0 | 134.0 | 35% | 73–83 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.7 | 131.1 | 40% | 66–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.2 | 145.8 | 89% | 68–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.6 | 139.0 | 85% | 68–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 147.3 | 69% | 81–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 151.8 | 53% | 63–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.0 | 134.9 | 15% | 65–53 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 156.5 | 32% | 90–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 125.5 | 61% | 66–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 139.6 | 58% | 76–68 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.8 | 141.4 | 27% | 75–51 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.