Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | SAM +250 UTC -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -8.4 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -7.2 (+15.2) | 140.7 (+11.3) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -7.0 (+15.0) | 143.5 (+8.5) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -6.8 (+14.8) | 143.8 (+8.2) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -7.3 (+15.3) | 142.9 (+9.1) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SAM 75 – 64 UTC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTC 88 – 79 SAM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UTC 82 – 68 SAM |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAM 73 – 69 UTC |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SAM 78 – 56 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#221) | 8.8 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#164) | 1.98 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#178) | 2.14 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#170) | 0.611 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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