Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | ILL -300 WIS +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +13 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -7.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -6.9 (+6.1) | 140.1 (+6.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -4.3 (+8.7) | 141.7 (+5.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -4.6 (+8.4) | 140.5 (+6.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -4.5 (+8.5) | 141.4 (+5.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | WIS 91 – 88 ILL |
| Feb 11, 2026 | WIS 92 – 90 ILL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WIS 95 – 74 ILL |
| Dec 11, 2024 | ILL 86 – 80 WIS |
| Mar 17, 2024 | ILL 93 – 87 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#15) | 11.7 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#30) | 3.68 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#30) | 4.17 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#32) | 0.653 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.