Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -1400 ILST +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -15.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -16.0 (-2.0) | 149.1 (-7.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -13.1 (+0.9) | 149.1 (-7.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -14.1 (-0.1) | 150.4 (-8.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -14.0 (-0.0) | 149.9 (-7.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2022 | LUC 59 – 50 ILST |
| Dec 29, 2020 | LUC 86 – 55 ILST |
| Dec 27, 2020 | LUC 90 – 60 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#24) | -0.3 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#43) | -0.78 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#50) | -0.71 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#48) | 0.457 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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