Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -800 BTLR +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -16.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -12.1 (-10.1) | 129.4 (+4.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -12.1 (-10.1) | 132.3 (+1.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -12.4 (-10.4) | 132.5 (+1.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -11.9 (-9.9) | 131.3 (+2.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BTLR 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BTLR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BTLR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 16-5 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#20) | 0.7 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#16) | 1.29 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#18) | 1.71 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#19) | 0.533 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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