Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
| Money | GTWN +170 SJU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +13 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -4.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -3.9 (-9.1) | 156.5 (+10.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -3.8 (-9.2) | 155.8 (+11.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -4.1 (-8.9) | 154.4 (+12.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -4.2 (-8.8) | 157.4 (+9.6) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SJU 72 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SJU 95 – 83 GTWN |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SJU 66 – 41 GTWN |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SJU 63 – 58 GTWN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SJU 86 – 78 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 0-19 | 8-11 |
| Home | 6-11 | 13-6 |
| Away | 0-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L21 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#175) | 7.1 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#207) | 1.14 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#200) | 1.87 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#214) | 0.515 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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