Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | SIU +115 MOST -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +15 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -2.8 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -2.9 (-12.1) | 121.9 (+1.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -3.1 (-11.9) | 131.1 (-8.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -3.0 (-12.0) | 132.9 (-9.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -3.1 (-11.9) | 127.1 (-4.1) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | SIU 73 – 51 MOST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SIU 88 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | MOST 76 – 75 SIU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | SIU 54 – 51 MOST |
| Feb 5, 2023 | SIU 73 – 53 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#127) | 8.7 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#201) | 0.84 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#191) | 1.55 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#225) | 0.543 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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