Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | INST +145 DRKE -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +18 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -3.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -4.3 (-13.7) | 142.6 (+9.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -3.0 (-15.0) | 144.5 (+7.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -3.0 (-15.0) | 144.1 (+7.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -3.5 (-14.5) | 144.4 (+7.6) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DRKE 76 – 62 INST |
| Jan 4, 2026 | DRKE 74 – 72 INST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | DRKE 85 – 81 INST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DRKE 71 – 53 INST |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DRKE 84 – 80 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-6 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#176) | 6.4 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#220) | 0.98 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#211) | 1.04 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#218) | 0.541 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 18.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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