Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | LAF -260 AMER +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -5.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -4.0 (+5.0) | 135.2 (-2.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -3.1 (+5.9) | 134.7 (-1.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -3.3 (+5.7) | 134.5 (-1.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -3.7 (+5.3) | 134.9 (-1.9) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AMER 75 – 61 LAF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | LAF 67 – 65 AMER |
| Mar 7, 2025 | AMER 71 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 10, 2025 | AMER 60 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AMER 75 – 68 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-9 | 6-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#321) | -12.5 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#329) | -1.93 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#328) | -2.33 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#310) | 0.395 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 12.6% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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