Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ +170 VILL -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -4.4 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -3.0 (+13.0) | 134.0 (+22.0) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -1.5 (+11.5) | 134.0 (+22.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -1.3 (+11.3) | 134.5 (+21.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -1.8 (+11.8) | 135.9 (+20.1) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | VILL 77 – 74 MARQ |
| Jan 10, 2026 | VILL 76 – 73 MARQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VILL 81 – 66 MARQ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MARQ 87 – 74 VILL |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MARQ 71 – 65 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 16-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#35) | 18.7 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#20) | 3.05 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#26) | 3.87 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#30) | 0.631 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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