Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UTM -110 SEMO -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +21 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -1.9 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -0.4 (+20.6) | 151.8 (-4.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -0.1 (+21.1) | 154.2 (-7.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -0.2 (+21.2) | 155.1 (-8.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -0.8 (+21.8) | 155.6 (-8.6) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SEMO 56 – 53 UTM |
| Jan 21, 2026 | SEMO 66 – 50 UTM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SEMO 90 – 79 UTM |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTM 66 – 63 SEMO |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTM 82 – 72 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-9 |
| Home | 5-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#307) | -7.0 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#309) | -1.43 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#311) | -1.85 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#305) | 0.442 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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