Betting Lines
| Spread | UALB -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | UALB -125 UMBC +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +6 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | UALB -0.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -0.2 (-5.8) | 133.9 (-21.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -0.6 (-5.4) | 133.6 (-21.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -0.1 (-5.9) | 134.6 (-22.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -1.1 (-4.9) | 134.9 (-22.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UMBC 66 – 62 UALB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UMBC 68 – 65 UALB |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UALB 78 – 74 UMBC |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UMBC 92 – 87 UALB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UMBC 80 – 75 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 4-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#270) | -3.4 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#260) | -0.91 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#268) | -1.11 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#246) | 0.459 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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