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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–5 on winners
spread MAE 7.9
30 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas
@
Iowa State
|
-3.1 | 139.2 | 42% | 70–61 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Maryland
|
-3.3 | 139.3 | 45% | 65–63 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Tennessee
|
+11.6 | 138.7 | 86% | 80–90 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
Siena
|
+3.1 | 135.3 | 62% | 65–73 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Duquesne
|
-7.2 | 138.6 | 26% | 74–57 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+0.8 | 138.6 | 52% | 81–76 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Western Michigan
|
-0.2 | 137.0 | 43% | 75–56 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Ohio
|
+12.3 | 147.2 | 87% | 63–87 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-9.1 | 150.7 | 17% | 86–66 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Central Michigan
|
-6.9 | 152.9 | 27% | 74–78 | ✗ |
Kent State
@
Miami (OH)
|
-0.1 | 137.5 | 48% | 78–65 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
Mississippi State
|
+6.6 | 137.6 | 75% | 64–78 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Northwestern
|
+5.3 | 134.0 | 68% | 78–79 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Louisville
|
-2.9 | 143.9 | 36% | 90–83 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Georgetown
|
-6.3 | 151.2 | 23% | 70–63 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
Auburn
|
+6.8 | 163.0 | 77% | 81–100 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Texas Tech
|
+6.5 | 125.2 | 77% | 64–77 | ✓ |
Providence
@
St. John's
|
+2.2 | 144.3 | 57% | 86–82 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
LSU
|
+12.9 | 131.1 | 84% | 76–72 | ✗ |
Tulsa
@
Wichita State
|
+9.3 | 138.4 | 81% | 48–58 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Utah State
|
+16.8 | 128.1 | 89% | 46–73 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Michigan
|
+14.6 | 150.0 | 87% | 79–85 | ✓ |
California
@
Stanford
|
+6.9 | 133.3 | 81% | 50–57 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
UC Riverside
|
+7.8 | 130.2 | 78% | 65–60 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
UNLV
|
+4.3 | 146.4 | 71% | 58–69 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
San José State
|
-13.6 | 127.0 | 14% | 73–43 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Missouri
|
-6.7 | 135.4 | 30% | 66–65 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Abilene Christian
|
+17.9 | 143.4 | 89% | 73–77 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
UNC Asheville
|
-2.1 | 140.0 | 42% | 56–48 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
Radford
|
+9.5 | 129.6 | 82% | 52–64 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.