Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA +110 LONG -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +8 | 104 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -1.9 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-37.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -2.1 (-5.9) | 140.0 (-36.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -1.7 (-6.3) | 143.1 (-39.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -1.7 (-6.3) | 143.3 (-39.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -1.3 (-6.7) | 142.2 (-38.2) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
Game Analysis
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