Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +27 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | USU -15.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -16.8 (+10.2) | 128.1 (-9.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -12.1 (+14.9) | 130.1 (-11.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -13.4 (+13.6) | 130.2 (-11.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -13.7 (+13.3) | 128.8 (-9.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | USU 99 – 62 AF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | USU 87 – 47 AF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | USU 87 – 58 AF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USU 72 – 60 AF |
| Jan 2, 2024 | USU 88 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-13 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 59.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#46) | -2.4 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#76) | 0.28 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#57) | 0.06 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#59) | 0.497 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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