Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +4 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -1.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -2.2 (-6.2) | 144.3 (+23.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -0.5 (-3.5) | 146.4 (+21.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -0.5 (-3.5) | 144.9 (+23.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -0.5 (-3.5) | 145.0 (+23.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SJU 85 – 72 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SJU 79 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PROV 77 – 71 SJU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJU 68 – 66 PROV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | SJU 72 – 70 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 14-3 |
| Home | 13-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#75) | 9.2 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#86) | 3.93 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#66) | 4.06 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#128) | 0.653 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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