Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -4.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -3.3 (+1.3) | 139.3 (-11.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -3.9 (+1.9) | 139.9 (-11.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -3.7 (+1.7) | 139.7 (-11.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -3.1 (+1.1) | 137.9 (-9.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MSU 91 – 48 MD |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MSU 58 – 55 MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSU 63 – 54 MD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | MSU 61 – 59 MD |
| Feb 8, 2023 | MSU 63 – 58 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#89) | 14.1 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#102) | 3.18 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#100) | 4.16 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#107) | 0.642 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.