Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -19.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -2800 CHST +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -18.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -17.9 (-13.9) | 143.4 (+6.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -13.8 (-9.8) | 145.5 (+4.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -13.9 (-9.9) | 145.9 (+4.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -14.5 (-10.5) | 144.4 (+5.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#133) | -13.4 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#147) | -2.02 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#147) | -2.66 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#157) | 0.407 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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