Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
| Money | UCR -210 UCD +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +5 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -7.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -7.8 (-12.8) | 130.2 (-5.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -5.4 (-10.4) | 130.1 (-5.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -6.2 (-11.2) | 130.8 (-5.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -5.5 (-10.5) | 131.5 (-6.5) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UCD 78 – 73 UCR |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UCD 74 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCD 75 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCR 60 – 58 UCD |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCR 67 – 61 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 5-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#139) | -3.1 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#127) | -0.70 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#143) | -0.89 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#121) | 0.439 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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