Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +7 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -5.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -6.9 (+0.1) | 133.3 (-26.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -5.8 (+1.2) | 135.9 (-28.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -6.6 (+0.4) | 135.1 (-28.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -5.5 (+1.5) | 134.4 (-27.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CAL 72 – 66 STAN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | CAL 78 – 66 STAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | STAN 78 – 73 CAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | STAN 66 – 61 CAL |
| Dec 7, 2024 | STAN 89 – 81 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#105) | 2.8 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#39) | 0.23 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#48) | 0.45 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#33) | 0.475 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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