Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +30 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -11.8 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -13.6 (-16.4) | 127.0 (-11.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -11.4 (-18.6) | 131.0 (-15.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -12.5 (-17.5) | 132.3 (-16.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -12.4 (-17.6) | 129.9 (-13.9) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FRES 82 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | FRES 70 – 55 SJSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJSU 92 – 68 FRES |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SJSU 94 – 91 FRES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FRES 69 – 57 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-9 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 59.6 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#288) | 8.1 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#221) | 1.35 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#238) | 1.86 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#231) | 0.546 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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