Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +20 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -9.9 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -9.1 (-10.9) | 150.7 (+1.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -8.6 (-11.4) | 150.4 (+1.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -8.6 (-11.4) | 150.7 (+1.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -9.2 (-10.8) | 151.4 (+0.6) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TOL 94 – 75 EMU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | EMU 80 – 73 TOL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | TOL 90 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 7, 2024 | TOL 91 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | TOL 70 – 63 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 17-3 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-14 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#253) | 8.2 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#256) | 1.87 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#259) | 2.25 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#278) | 0.594 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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