Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +19 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -7.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (+22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -6.8 (+12.2) | 163.0 (+18.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -8.3 (+10.7) | 158.8 (+22.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -8.0 (+11.0) | 159.9 (+21.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -8.2 (+10.8) | 158.3 (+22.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ALA 96 – 84 AUB |
| Feb 7, 2026 | ALA 96 – 92 AUB |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALA 93 – 91 AUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AUB 94 – 85 ALA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | AUB 99 – 81 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#7) | 14.6 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.22 (#1) | 2.49 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.12 (#1) | 3.27 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.676 (#1) | 0.667 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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