Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +24 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -14.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -12.3 (+11.7) | 147.2 (+2.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -12.6 (+11.4) | 147.2 (+2.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -13.0 (+11.0) | 147.1 (+2.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -12.8 (+11.2) | 147.4 (+2.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | OHIO 69 – 57 BALL |
| Jan 17, 2026 | BALL 76 – 71 OHIO |
| Jan 15, 2025 | OHIO 86 – 71 BALL |
| Feb 7, 2024 | OHIO 84 – 79 BALL |
| Mar 9, 2023 | OHIO 90 – 70 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#90) | -5.2 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#35) | -0.56 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#44) | -0.76 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#48) | 0.461 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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