Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ +205 FLA -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +1 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -8.8 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -6.7 (+5.7) | 135.4 (-4.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -5.5 (+4.5) | 135.8 (-4.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -5.9 (+4.9) | 136.7 (-5.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -6.3 (+5.3) | 136.3 (-5.3) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MIZ 76 – 74 FLA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | FLA 95 – 81 MIZ |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 82 FLA |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FLA 83 – 74 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2024 | FLA 79 – 67 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#180) | 11.3 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#136) | 1.52 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#130) | 1.87 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#148) | 0.558 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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