Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | KC -300 STMN +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | KC -3.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -3.1 (+5.9) | 139.1 (+13.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -4.8 (+4.2) | 144.0 (+9.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -4.1 (+4.9) | 144.4 (+8.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -4.2 (+4.8) | 144.2 (+8.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | STMN 104 – 64 KC |
| Feb 1, 2026 | STMN 99 – 64 KC |
| Mar 2, 2025 | STMN 65 – 59 KC |
| Jan 26, 2025 | STMN 68 – 65 KC |
| Feb 4, 2024 | STMN 71 – 56 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 8-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#254) | -5.6 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#208) | -1.45 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#193) | -1.53 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#196) | 0.445 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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