Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | UND +105 DEN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -3.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -2.6 (+0.6) | 142.6 (+17.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -4.2 (+2.2) | 144.7 (+15.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -4.0 (+2.0) | 146.7 (+13.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -4.1 (+2.1) | 145.0 (+15.0) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 7-11 |
| Home | 4-11 | 6-7 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -14.3 (#348) | -7.2 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.82 (#347) | -1.64 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.04 (#354) | -1.95 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.366 (#349) | 0.411 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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