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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–14 on winners spread MAE 10.1 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UConn @ Seton Hall -6.6 145.2 25% 60–75 ✗
Baylor @ Duke -0.5 153.6 46% 70–78 ✗
Xavier @ St. John's +4.7 147.2 72% 66–81 ✓
Grambling @ SE Louisiana +6.0 133.3 71% 47–48 ✓
Rider @ Delaware +13.5 142.2 87% 88–85 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Georgia +9.8 140.0 81% 82–94 ✓
Robert Morris @ Saint Francis -0.6 133.8 43% 75–73 ✓
Delaware State @ East Carolina +6.1 139.8 70% 50–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ NC State +13.9 151.9 88% 70–82 ✓
Wyoming @ South Dakota State +2.9 141.0 61% 78–65 ✗
Vermont @ Toledo +5.6 143.6 71% 86–60 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Pittsburgh +10.3 149.3 81% 48–62 ✓
Oakland @ Dayton +11.4 139.7 83% 67–91 ✓
Radford @ West Virginia +1.8 135.7 53% 66–65 ✗
Kansas City @ East Tennessee State +5.5 138.6 73% 57–70 ✓
Arkansas State @ Belmont +7.1 153.5 77% 70–74 ✓
North Dakota @ Nebraska +14.6 139.9 87% 75–83 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Rice +5.8 139.3 71% 56–82 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Evansville +11.7 147.8 86% 51–82 ✓
Sam Houston @ Grand Canyon +15.4 146.3 89% 64–76 ✓
Liberty @ Utah Valley -1.5 131.2 39% 79–63 ✓
UMBC @ Iowa +22.6 165.5 90% 81–103 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Chicago State +4.2 137.4 67% 54–55 ✓
Northwestern @ Arizona State -4.1 139.7 35% 65–46 ✓
North Carolina @ Oklahoma +4.4 152.4 67% 81–69 ✗
Villanova @ Creighton +10.4 141.7 83% 68–66 ✗
Jackson State @ Gonzaga +19.4 146.3 90% 76–100 ✓
UC Irvine @ New Mexico +8.2 149.1 78% 65–78 ✓
Bellarmine @ Utah +17.3 140.1 90% 43–85 ✓
Norfolk State @ UTEP +1.9 135.4 58% 65–67 ✓
Howard @ UC Santa Barbara +8.1 149.6 79% 81–94 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Seattle U +1.0 134.6 50% 73–79 ✓
Northern Arizona @ San Francisco +13.0 132.0 85% 51–91 ✓
Santa Clara @ San José State +2.9 145.9 61% 78–81 ✓
Pacific @ Cal State Fullerton +12.9 132.1 87% 56–67 ✓
Alabama @ Arizona +8.3 168.6 75% 74–87 ✓
Dartmouth @ Sacred Heart +3.4 130.8 61% 57–67 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fordham +5.9 134.7 69% 82–80 ✗
Hampton @ Eastern Michigan +6.2 144.0 71% 69–72 ✓
UT Arlington @ Texas Tech +13.1 145.0 86% 66–77 ✓
Navy @ Youngstown State +9.1 136.0 82% 65–75 ✓
Manhattan @ Monmouth +10.9 142.8 84% 71–77 ✓
Holy Cross @ Harvard +16.3 144.6 91% 72–74 ✓
Alcorn State @ George Washington +15.9 158.6 90% 75–79 ✓
Incarnate Word @ UIC +16.6 143.5 88% 67–66 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Lafayette -3.7 136.4 36% 78–60 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Little Rock +2.2 138.1 63% 90–60 ✗
Nevada @ Temple -8.0 146.1 21% 80–56 ✓
Presbyterian @ Wake Forest +19.5 145.4 90% 68–91 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Air Force +8.0 137.6 76% 83–79 ✗
Niagara @ Syracuse +18.5 149.2 91% 71–83 ✓
American University @ Virginia Tech +17.4 139.8 88% 55–77 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Coastal Carolina +6.4 152.0 73% 85–82 ✗
TCU @ Old Dominion -14.6 148.8 14% 111–87 ✓
Kentucky @ Louisville -8.8 160.3 18% 95–76 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston College +17.6 152.6 89% 69–85 ✓
Western Michigan @ Cleveland State +9.9 142.8 83% 77–90 ✓
New Orleans @ Ohio State +20.6 152.2 91% 36–78 ✓
New Hampshire @ Rhode Island +2.1 146.5 57% 81–71 ✗
Jacksonville @ Purdue +24.6 157.0 91% 57–100 ✓
Tarleton State @ Tennessee +17.2 140.0 90% 46–65 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Akron +9.2 136.0 82% 90–94 ✓
Stony Brook @ Michigan State +17.2 140.1 89% 55–99 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.