Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | ASU +150 NU -178 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +19 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | NU -4.2 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -4.4 (-14.6) | 137.6 (-26.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -4.1 (-14.9) | 139.7 (-28.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -3.4 (-15.6) | 141.0 (-30.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -4.6 (-14.4) | 139.1 (-28.1) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#142) | 5.9 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#107) | 1.80 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#101) | 3.00 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#79) | 0.575 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 2.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.