Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | TTU -1000 UTA +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +11 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -12.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -15.1 (-4.1) | 146.0 (-3.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -13.1 (-2.1) | 145.0 (-2.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -12.3 (-1.3) | 145.8 (-2.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -13.8 (-2.8) | 144.2 (-1.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#66) | 0.1 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#72) | 0.17 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#70) | 0.05 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#83) | 0.527 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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