Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | EMU -190 HAMP +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | EMU -7.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -5.4 (-2.4) | 143.4 (-2.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -6.2 (-3.2) | 144.0 (-3.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -6.7 (-3.7) | 144.5 (-3.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -7.0 (-4.0) | 144.5 (-3.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#316) | -11.2 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#226) | -2.73 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#217) | -3.52 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#237) | 0.373 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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