Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
| Money | URI -225 UNH +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNH +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | URI -1.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -1.3 (-11.3) | 147.6 (+4.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -2.1 (-12.1) | 146.5 (+5.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | URI -1.8 (-11.8) | 146.9 (+5.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -2.4 (-12.4) | 148.9 (+3.1) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#229) | -0.3 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#251) | 0.77 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#240) | 0.41 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#227) | 0.552 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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