Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SF -1400 NAU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +40 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SF -16.9 (+23.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -15.6 (+24.4) | 129.5 (+12.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -13.0 (+27.0) | 132.0 (+10.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -13.6 (+26.4) | 131.9 (+10.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -14.6 (+25.4) | 133.4 (+8.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#58) | -3.9 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#69) | 0.97 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#63) | 0.72 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#63) | 0.544 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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