Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | UGA -700 MSM +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +12 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -10.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+34.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -9.9 (+2.1) | 144.9 (+31.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -9.8 (+2.2) | 140.0 (+36.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -9.7 (+2.3) | 139.0 (+37.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -9.6 (+2.4) | 141.0 (+35.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#120) | -2.4 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#76) | -1.69 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#83) | -2.32 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#28) | 0.410 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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