Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.0 Under |
| Money | BEL -215 ARST +178 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -7.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -7.5 (-3.5) | 156.1 (-12.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -7.1 (-3.1) | 153.5 (-9.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -7.4 (-3.4) | 153.8 (-9.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -6.4 (-2.4) | 156.5 (-12.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#167) | -2.2 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#108) | -0.82 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#113) | -1.05 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#122) | 0.456 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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