Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | VT -2000 AMER +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +22 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | VT -19.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -17.2 (+4.8) | 137.1 (-5.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -17.4 (+4.6) | 139.8 (-7.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -18.6 (+3.4) | 139.3 (-7.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -18.4 (+3.6) | 139.8 (-7.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#57) | -5.9 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#42) | -1.95 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#49) | -2.70 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#46) | 0.410 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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