And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
Charles E. Smith Center · December 21, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread GW -16.5 Away covered
O/U 159.5 Under
Money GW -2000 / ALCN +1050
Model Predictions
Spread Total GW win
Actual GW +4 154 Won
Massey GW -21.8 (-17.8) — —
Massey Totals — 167.4 (-13.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 99% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ GW -14.6 (-10.6) 157.0 (-3.0) 89% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML GW -15.9 (-11.9) 158.6 (-4.6) 90% ✓
Baseline ML GW -18.3 (-14.3) 158.0 (-4.0) 90% ✓
Baseline Plus ML GW -17.9 (-13.9) 156.1 (-2.1) 89% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GW ALCN
Overall 15-17 14-18
Conference 4-14 13-5
Home 12-6 7-3
Away 1-9 7-14
Neutral 2-2 0-1
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 76.4 71.9
Avg Pts Against 77.4 77.9
Massey 4.4 (#101) -12.7 (#344)
Bradley-Terry 1.44 (#66) -2.57 (#339)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.89 (#71) -3.43 (#331)
RPI 0.570 (#71) 0.416 (#304)
Shooting & Four Factors GW ALCN
FG% 46.1% 40.9%
3PT% 37.2% 35.0%
REB / G 41.7 31.8
OREB / G 8.7 9.8
AST / TO 0.95 0.81
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.4% 45.2%
TOV% 18.9% 17.0%
ORB% 25.3% 25.6%
FT Rate 25.9% 23.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.0% 60.3%
Opp TOV% 14.8% 15.9%
DRB% 73.2% 65.8%
Opp FT Rate 13.4% 30.5%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.