Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UIC -1400 UIW +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +1 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UIC -18.4 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -13.5 (-14.5) | 144.3 (-11.3) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -16.6 (-17.6) | 143.5 (-10.5) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -15.5 (-16.5) | 142.8 (-9.8) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -15.6 (-16.6) | 143.4 (-10.4) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 3-15 |
| Home | 6-9 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#91) | -8.5 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#154) | -1.58 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#108) | -2.17 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#131) | 0.395 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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