Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -455 HOW +345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +13 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -7.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (+16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -7.9 (+5.1) | 149.5 (+25.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -8.1 (+4.9) | 149.6 (+25.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -8.3 (+4.7) | 150.9 (+24.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -8.2 (+4.8) | 151.8 (+23.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#166) | -2.9 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#144) | -1.36 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#164) | -1.35 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#120) | 0.425 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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